Today marks the 1,600th day of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Over that period, the ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor has tallied the following:

The world’s attention has remained fixed on these events, with many viewing the war as both a bellwether and a clear-cut reason to prepare for further Russian incursions.

And that’s before considering the continuing rupture of Pax Americana.

So what should we be preparing for?

Let’s start by asking, “What if Russia attacks NATO?” and letting Ernstfall walk us through one possible answer.

Imagine waking one morning in the not-too-distant future with Europe poised on the brink of an event that could reshape its political and military landscape.

Ernstfall takes us inside a German war game that examines this hypothetical scenario with urgency and remarkable detail. Barely a week passes without renewed debate over NATO’s resilience and readiness, and this series demands that we ask what needs to change and whether the alliance is truly prepared for a direct confrontation with Russia.

Across five episodes, we’re led through a twisting exploration of how a Russian attack on NATO might unfold. The scenario begins in Berlin’s government district on a critical morning in October 2026, with the gravity of each decision forcing participants and listeners alike to confront how quickly the unimaginable could become reality.

There really isn’t much else like it.

If you want some sense of what might happen if Article 5 were invoked, Ernstfall needs to be your next listen.

Have a listen, and let us know what you think.

If you enjoy Ernstfall, you’ll also enjoy It Could Happen Here and Suspicious Minds recent Decameron Days episodes.

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